AGP Executive Report

JSE & Retail: Mr Price shares jumped about 14.7% to R172 after resilient earnings and market-share gains, though management warned renewed food and fuel inflation and a reversal in the interest-rate cut cycle could still weigh on consumer recovery. Credit Ratings: Fitch upgraded South Africa’s long-term credit rating to BB from BB-, citing prudent fiscal management and improving debt dynamics, its first upgrade in nearly 21 years. HIV Prevention: President Ramaphosa officially launched Lenacapavir, a twice-yearly HIV prevention injection, aiming to reach 3 million people over three years, with rollout starting at 360 public facilities. Migration & Xenophobia: Anti-migrant violence continues to trigger regional fallout, with Nigeria starting screening for voluntary repatriation of over 1,000 citizens from South Africa, after similar moves by Ghana; business groups and officials are urging calm and cooperation. Student Housing: NSFAS was given a 30 June deadline to announce 2026 accommodation rates, with providers warning delays could push the sector into crisis. Regional Trade & Health: SADC adopted legal instruments to boost trade, tourism and pooled medicine procurement, including a tourism univisa and a pharmaceuticals pooled procurement charter. Local Governance & Corruption: Sanral responded to allegations of a “R9.5bn tender storm,” saying historic irregular expenditure has been resolved and disclosed.

Youth Employment & Skills: Shoprite’s pharmaceutical distributor Transpharm has started its first intake of unemployed youth into the Retail Readiness Programme, training 18–34-year-olds in Cape Town with a mix of classroom learning and on-the-job experience, building a pipeline that has already supported 40,000+ learners since 2016. Joburg Politics & Finances: DA mayoral candidate Helen Zille says Johannesburg needs “delivery, not bureaucracy” and argues the city’s recovery hinges on stabilising finances and winning votes in the metro ahead of local elections. Trade & Integration: Presidents Cyril Ramaphosa and William Ruto used their state visit to push deeper South Africa–Kenya economic integration, signing six MoUs aimed at cutting border friction and boosting maritime, skills, and trade cooperation. Markets Mood: Global risk appetite stayed cautious as AI demand worries and geopolitics dragged sentiment, with the JSE All Share slipping 0.5% on the week. Health & Regulation: Aurobindo Pharma secured final USFDA approval for Tofacitinib tablets, strengthening its US generics portfolio. Public Safety & Governance: SAPS confirmed the firing of Major General Richard Shibiri after misconduct findings linked to alleged improper ties. Digital Economy: Canal+ is exploring ways to reduce DStv subscription costs via a unified streaming “super app,” aiming to protect customer growth. Environment & Risk: Research flags rising whale-strike risk in South African waters as shipping traffic increases, urging faster action to protect marine life.

Municipal Delivery Crisis: ActionSA says Johannesburg has plans but not delivery, pushing for an institutional review that could cut or restructure municipal entities that duplicate management and weaken accountability. Job Cuts & Retail Rescue: Labour Minister steps in to pause Pick n Pay retrenchments of about 22,000 jobs while talks with unions look for alternatives. Platinum Jobs at Risk: Wesizwe Platinum begins consultation on nearly 500 job cuts at Bakubung as it restructures to improve long-term mine sustainability. Regulatory Pressure on Finance: Liberty’s adviser Michael Andrew loses a bid to overturn debarment after failing to disclose R1.5m inherited from a deceased client. Governance Probe: Ramaphosa authorises the SIU to investigate maladministration at PSIRA and UIF. SA-Kenya Trade Push: Ramaphosa and Ruto sign six new agreements and call for deeper economic integration, investment and mobility. Xenophobia Fallout: Mozambique says five nationals were killed in xenophobic attacks, while reports describe migrants fleeing door-to-door violence. Transport Safety: Stellenbosch suspends GoNow scooters after minors were injured; use remains illegal on public roads and sidewalks. Vehicle Recalls: NCC issues recalls for Toyota, Lexus and Hyundai models over safety software defects affecting camera display. Business & Markets: Rand steadies as traders weigh new US forced-labour tariff threats; China rejects the US approach and warns against unilateral restrictions. Tech & Cyber: BDO warns cyber risks are now top business threats as companies struggle to keep up. Gender-Based Violence: TEARS Foundation calls for urgent state overhaul, citing forensic backlogs and police lab failures.

Rugby Business Row: Saru says ticket demand for the Springboks’ All Blacks series far outstrips supply, arguing pricing is just like any other industry—while critics warn it risks treating rugby as pure commerce. Joburg Financial Strain: The Auditor-General’s findings paint City of Johannesburg as a “horror show”, with huge debt write-offs, massive electricity losses and weak enforcement driving the metro’s breakdown. Youth Unemployment Focus: President Ramaphosa admits youth joblessness is at crisis levels and flags a R1 trillion infrastructure push over three years to spur growth and hiring. AI and Work: South Africa’s debate heats up over whether AI will replace entry-level jobs or create new roles—experts stress the need for digital skills and training. Eskom Nuclear Fight: Eskom revives the Thyspunt nuclear plan, saying it’s part of a long-term strategy, as environmentalists warn of risks to sensitive coastal areas. US Forced-Labour Tariffs: Washington proposes fresh tariffs on imports from multiple countries including South Africa, tied to forced-labour enforcement failures. India–SA Tech Boost: India and South Africa deepen cooperation in biotech, healthcare innovation, AI and digital infrastructure, aiming to turn research into practical health outcomes. Ruto State Visit: Kenya’s president lands in Pretoria with trade and investment on the agenda, with Standard Bank urging South African firms to treat the visit as a capital opportunity. Agriculture Support: Bayer and Khula launch a R7.5m accelerator to help emerging farmers access tools, skills, finance and markets. Powerball Windfall: A KZN player wins R128.6m in PowerBall—another reminder that Mzansi’s biggest bets aren’t always on markets.

E-commerce Battle: Amazon Prime has officially launched in South Africa, bundling free delivery, Prime Video, gaming perks and a Prime Day event for R59/month or R399/year—raising the heat on Takealot and other local retailers. Jobs & Growth: President Cyril Ramaphosa flagged youth unemployment as SA’s biggest threat, while committing R1 trillion over three years to build and refurbish roads, dams, schools, hospitals and energy/logistics infrastructure. Macro Pulse: South Africa’s private sector contracted in May as fuel costs and Middle East-linked uncertainty hit demand, with the PMI slipping below 50. Trade & Tariffs: The US proposed fresh Section 301 forced-labour tariffs, including 12.5% duties on imports from eight African countries, South Africa among them. Finance Stress: Outstanding loans rose to R2.7 trillion, with more loans in arrears and over-indebtedness climbing. Energy Transition: SANEA rebranded to push “inclusive energy progress,” while property and bond-market jitters remain a concern for listed REITs. Local Business & Policy: Grain SA is moving toward legal action over delayed wheat tariff decisions by the dtic/ITAC. Politics & Governance: The IEC is probing a R30m loan-to-donation conversion involving Rise Mzansi ahead of local elections. Diplomacy: Deputy President Paul Mashatile met India’s leaders to deepen cooperation in tech, pharma, energy, skilling and MSMEs. Security & Migration: Namibia urged vigilance amid anti-migrant unrest in SA. Capital Markets: CANAL+ listed on the JSE, marking a major milestone for the bourse’s African growth strategy.

Local Economy & Jobs: Ramaphosa used the Presidency Budget Vote to say load reduction is ending as the economy recovers, but the Gulf war and oil shock could still slow growth and job creation. Business Confidence: The RMB/BER index slipped eight points in Q2 as Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and inflation risks, hitting vehicle dealers, wholesalers and retailers. Rates & Inflation: SARB governor Kganyago defended the latest rate hike, warning that waiting for “second-round” fuel-price effects could let higher inflation expectations stick. Migration & Labour Policy: Ramaphosa said illegal migration strains public services and vowed action, while Employment and Labour outlined tougher enforcement and an Employment Services Amendment Bill to prioritise local job seekers. Johannesburg Governance: The JDA boss Themba Mathibe walked free after fraud charges were struck off the court roll. City Finance: Auditor-General findings point to Joburg’s R9.5bn bad-debt and audit regression, while Scopa flagged “false assurances” on the city’s financial health. Energy & Compliance: EPC rules are still widely ignored, despite penalties up to R5m and jail. Markets & Investment: Bank of America expects more rating upgrades but says investment grade remains unlikely without stronger fiscal rules. Crypto & Exchange Controls: A Johannesburg court ruled cryptocurrency is both “money” and “capital” under exchange control laws. Trade & Tariffs: The US named India in forced-labour Section 301 findings and proposed extra tariffs of 10%–12.5%. Consumer & Retail: Amazon Prime launched in South Africa at R59/month, and Toyota’s May sales hit a 13-year high despite fuel pressures. Cape Town Water: A proposed R5bn Paarden Eiland desalination project is drawing tariff concerns. Transport Safety: Stellenbosch suspended GoNow scooters after minors were injured, citing illegality on public roads and sidewalks.

Courtroom Fallout: JDA boss Themba Mathiba walked free after a fraud case was struck off the court roll, but the NPA says it will re-enrol the matter once outstanding forensic and electronic-device processes are completed. Governance & Integrity: The SIU flagged more than R8m in Free State bursary irregularities, including funding for deceased students, foreign nationals and ineligible recipients. Migration & Business Risk: President Ramaphosa urged South Africans to reject xenophobia and warned illegal immigration strains public services; the message comes as Ghana continues evacuations amid anti-migrant violence. Agriculture & Health: South Africa’s Foot-and-mouth disease response got a boost with millions of vaccine doses procured and more deliveries expected, as officials outline the next vaccination phase. Weather Watch: Western Cape authorities warned of severe storms from Wednesday to Thursday, with heavy rain and rough seas expected. Telecoms Earnings: Telkom shares jumped after strong annual earnings and a higher dividend, driven by mobile and fibre growth. Energy/Industry: SA Plastics Pact 2030 targets were launched, pushing partnerships to tackle waste and shift away from a linear economy. Media Jobs: IOL plans a major recruitment drive tied to a R200m expansion and AI push.

Diamond sector stress: Petra Diamonds put its Finsch mine into business rescue, blaming weak natural diamond prices and a strong rand—another sign the lab-grown diamond squeeze is still biting. Xenophobia fallout: Ghana warned citizens to avoid non-essential travel to South Africa after attacks on Africans; Mozambique also said five Mozambicans were killed in xenophobic violence in Mossel Bay. Visa access squeeze: The US plans to cut Africa visa-processing sites from 50 to 20, potentially forcing more applicants to travel abroad for interviews. Local governance: Johannesburg Council approved the City’s R97.1bn 2026/27 budget, with priorities on infrastructure, water, safety and service delivery. Politics & funding: IEC scrutiny continues after Rise Mzansi’s R30m “loan-to-donation” conversion raised questions. City service disruption: Msunduzi waste workers downed tools over salary grading disputes, risking refuse-collection delays. Tech & finance: Yoco appointed a new CEO as it plots its next growth phase in Africa’s payments push. Youth jobs pressure: Labour Minister Meth flagged a “missing jobs crisis” despite signs of stabilisation.

Electricity Relief for Chrome: Nersa approved discounted power tariffs for ferrochrome smelters, cutting electricity costs by more than 50% and helping Glencore’s venture and Samancor halt planned job cuts. Cost-of-Living Pressure: South Africa’s latest repo-rate hike is adding to monthly household bills, while municipalities push up electricity, water, rates and refuse—making real pay growth feel even smaller. DA Corruption Case: The DA opened a criminal case against former Ekurhuleni city manager Imogen Mashazi over an alleged undeclared R3.5m London trip. Vehicle Market Momentum: New-vehicle sales hit a 13-year high for May, up 12.8%, but buyers are increasingly value-driven as financing costs rise. SARS Border Rules: From 1 June 2026, travellers must submit online customs declarations, and foreign-registered vehicles need declarations and temporary import permits at ports of entry. Ghana–SA Xenophobia Fallout: Ghana advised citizens to avoid non-essential travel to South Africa and says 120 job offers have been secured for evacuees. BRICS Trade Push: South Africa’s BRICS Business Council is pushing to cut trade barriers and expand cross-border investment, including more use of national currencies.

SAPS Tender Fallout: Four senior SAPS officials have been served with suspension notices in the widening probe into the irregular R360m “Cat” Matlala Medicare24 health services contract, linked to the Madlanga Commission and a parliamentary inquiry. Phala Phala Pressure: Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala saga is back in the spotlight as the Busisiwe Mkhwebane Foundation urges the FBI and US DOJ to investigate the origin and handling of the US dollars found at the farm. Rates vs Housing: Property sector voices warn that higher interest rates won’t build homes, pushing up delivery costs and threatening jobs as affordability takes strain. Labour Market: Stats SA reports unemployment rose to 32.7% in Q1 2026, with youth joblessness climbing to 45.8%. Xenophobia Debate: Julius Malema invokes Zimbabwe’s Gukurahundi in the immigration row, arguing ethnic intolerance can turn deadly. Trade & Policy: China’s zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries is welcomed, but exporters are warned that compliance, logistics and support will decide whether it turns into real growth. Border Compliance: Eswatini travellers must declare vehicles and goods under a new South African traveller declaration system starting today. Energy Transition: Mezzanine and Open Access Energy sign a reseller deal to expand virtual wheeling access across SA’s renewable market. Local Business & Crime: Dis-Chem is under Competition Commission investigation after a complaint about its discount scheme.

Joburg Budget Pressure: The City of Johannesburg’s 2026/27 capital spend is under the microscope, with only R8.9bn (about 9%) earmarked for capital expenditure and a big chunk likely to come via borrowing or national grants—while residents face above-inflation tariff hikes. Power & Industry: NERSA approved electricity pricing relief for major smelters, and fuel-price pressure is back in focus as the Middle East conflict keeps costs elevated. Xenophobia Fallout: Xenophobic attacks on African nationals are drawing condemnation and raising business risk, with calls for AU/AfCFTA intervention and reports of cancelled bookings and evacuations. Political Funding Watch: IEC disclosures show the DA and Rise Mzansi dominating declared donations ahead of the 2026 local elections, while Public Works is probing a “ghost tenant” lease deal. Trade & China: SARS clarified how exporters can access China’s new zero-tariff scheme, spelling out the requirements. Energy Transition: Battery storage and distributed energy are highlighted as key to powering South Africa’s manufacturing push. Local Business: Cape Town approved nearly 700 new trading bays to expand informal trading opportunities. Sports Business: South Africa’s World Cup departure is delayed by visa issues, adding friction to travel and event planning.

SADC Trade Push: Botswana says it will deepen cross-border business ties to cut non-tariff barriers, ease logistics and expand regional market access as it hosts the 30th Business Botswana Northern Trade Fair in Francistown. Xenophobia Fallout: Nigeria’s police urged calm as fears of retaliation grow amid reports of anti-foreigner violence in South Africa, while Ghanaian returnees described evacuation as a “moment of freedom” after years of hardship. Spaza Support Rollout: South Africa’s spaza shop support fund is moving ahead: R179.6m has been approved for 2,300+ shops, but hundreds are still failing compliance checks. Diplomacy & Business: Deputy President Paul Mashatile and President Ramaphosa are set to host Kenya’s President Ruto for a state visit and business forum focused on trade and investment. Household Pressure: Reserve Bank rate hikes plus fuel and food inflation are squeezing budgets, with research showing consumers cutting spending and buying less fuel for the same money. Mining Update: Petra Diamonds placed its Finsch mine into business rescue and warned of further cost cuts as weak diamond prices and a strong rand bite. Energy/Water Watch: Cape Town dam levels jumped nearly 20% in a week, lifting storage to 70.8% capacity.

SARB & Markets: The rand held steady around 16.23/$ as investors waited on key SA data, while the JSE Top-40 edged up and the 2035 bond yield slipped to 8.39%. Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank lifted the repo rate to 7% and warned the economy faces a high-inflation, low-growth mix, with risks tied to the Middle East, El Niño and food/fuel shocks. Local Government Elections: The IEC kicked off the 2026 local election season, with voters heading into another cycle amid public frustration over unemployment, inequality and service delivery. Energy & Industry: Nersa approved Eskom price relief for ferrochrome producers to protect jobs and output, including a temporary take-or-pay relaxation for Transalloys. Consumer Rules: New Consumer Protection Act rules for direct marketers took effect from 15 April, tightening opt-out and compliance obligations. Business Climate: S&P affirmed SA’s ratings with a positive outlook, citing improving fiscal reforms. Governance & Tech: SA’s withdrawn AI policy is being framed as a warning for businesses on governance failures. Health & Social Crisis: Justice stats show 890 child-on-child rape cases in 2025/26, underscoring protection gaps. Township Economy: Retail in township and commuter-node areas is drawing capital as trading densities and cash-based spending power grow.

Retail Security: Woolworths says two improvised explosive devices hit its stores in Pretoria (Menlyn Park) and Bloemfontein (Preller Square), with no injuries; Pretoria reopened while Bloemfontein stays closed as police and the Hawks investigate, and the retailer has boosted nationwide security. Higher Education Debt: Parliament hears that 165,000 to 188,209 student certificates are being withheld over unpaid fees as SA’s higher education debt crisis swells to about R59bn, with warnings this traps graduates in unemployment and debt. Social Grants Deadline: Postbank warns SASSA beneficiaries must switch from SASSA Gold Cards to Postbank Black Cards by 31 August or risk disruptions accessing grant money, with earlier figures suggesting up to 1.3m may still be on Gold Cards. Energy & Infrastructure Finance: Johannesburg secures a R3.8bn KfW loan to modernise its electricity network, including substations, smart meters and renewable projects. Inflation/Markets: South Africa posts a trade surplus of 15.16bn rand in April, according to revenue service data. Joburg Power Upgrade Loan: Cash-strapped Joburg also faces scrutiny as it pushes ahead with the R3.8bn power upgrade. World Cup Economy: FIFA World Cup 2026 hype is spilling beyond stadiums, with “buzziest” fan atmospheres found outside venues—an angle that matters for local tourism and trade. Xenophobia & Business Impact: Cape Town sees renewed school unrest as students protest foreign nationals in schools, while ANC leaders condemn violence and extortion linked to migration tensions. Sustainable Finance: National Treasury publishes its Sovereign Use of Proceeds Framework and Second Party Opinion, paving the way for potential green bond issuance and reporting rules. Corporate Moves: Alvarez & Marsal opens its first African office in Cape Town, targeting infrastructure, energy, mining and industrial clients as investor interest grows. Retail Earnings Watch: SPAR shares slide after warning interim earnings could drop by 50%-60% amid margin pressure, especially in KwaZulu-Natal.

SARB Rate Shock: South Africa’s Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 bps to 7%, warning inflation risks could push further hikes if fuel and food pressures persist. Property Pressure: Analysts say higher borrowing costs will hit first-time buyers hardest, while existing homeowners face tighter budgets as affordability worsens. Gauteng Crime Crisis: New police figures show Gauteng drives more than half of SA kidnappings, with ransom cases concentrated in the province and syndicates increasingly targeting victims’ bank accounts. Public Safety & Accountability: The DA demanded action after a probe found nearly 28,000 absconded parolees and probationers can’t be accounted for, calling it a “public safety crisis”. Local Government Politics: ActionSA rejected Johannesburg’s R97.1bn budget, arguing spending priorities aren’t pro-poor and implementation is weak. Energy & Industry Buildout: Transnet TNPA signed a R22bn LNG terminal deal at Port of Ngqura to support gas-to-power and energy security, targeting full operations by 2035. Tourism Bounce: SA tourist accommodation revenue jumped 14.1% year-on-year in March, led by hotels. Health & Regulation: SAHPRA and the Pharmacy Council raided a Pretoria compounding pharmacy over compounded GLP-1 weight-loss products, escalating pressure on the market. Immigration Tensions: Malema urged African unity and rejected violence against undocumented foreigners as anti-immigrant protests intensify. Education Pathways: Rosebank College rebranded to Rosebank International, signalling a push toward full university status and expanded postgraduate offerings.

Monetary Policy Shock: The South African Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 bps to 7%—its first hike since 2023—citing Middle East-driven oil risks, higher fuel and food inflation, and weaker disposable income. Household Pressure: The rate move is expected to lift prime lending and squeeze budgets further as economists warn of tighter consumption and slower growth. RAF Funding Plan: Transport Minister Barbara Creecy says government is exploring a new Road Accident Fund contribution linked to vehicle licence renewals, as the fund’s liabilities and EV fuel-levy decline weigh on sustainability. Border Crackdown: South African border officials seized nearly R1bn of methaqualone (“ABBA”) at Beitbridge from Malawi, arresting three suspects and highlighting organised cross-border syndicates. Xenophobia Fallout: Nigeria-linked groups allege at least 105 Nigerians have been killed in South Africa over seven years, while Ghana’s evacuation of citizens continues amid rising anti-immigrant tensions. SASSA Update: Beneficiaries have until 31 August to replace expiring SASSA Gold Cards with Postbank Black Cards. Court Watch: Alleged political fixer Brown Mogotsi’s bail case was postponed to next Thursday.